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Tools and guidance

NGFS Climate Scenarios for central banks and supervisors

The NGFS Climate Scenarios (the scenarios) have been developed to provide a common starting point for analysing climate risks to the economy and financial system. While developed primarily for use by central banks and supervisors they may also be useful to the broader financial, academic and corporate communities. This document provides an overview of the key transition risks, physical risks and economic impact of climate change.

Key points

• The first iteration explores a set of eight scenarios which are consistent with the Framework published in the First NGFS Comprehensive Report. The set includes three representative scenarios, which each cover one of the following dimensions:
– Orderly: Early, ambitious action to a net zero CO2 emissions economy;
– Disorderly: Action that is late, disruptive, sudden and / or unanticipated;
– Hot house world: Limited action leads to a hot house world with significant global warming and, as a result, strongly increased exposure to physical risks.
• These scenarios were chosen to show a range of lower and higher risk outcomes. A ‘too little, too late’ scenario with both high transition and physical risks was not included in the first iteration.